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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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