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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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