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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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