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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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