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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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