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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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