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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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