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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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