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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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