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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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