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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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