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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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