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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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