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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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