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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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