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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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