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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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