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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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