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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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