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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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