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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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