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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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