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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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