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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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