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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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