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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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