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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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