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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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