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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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