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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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