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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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