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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
AFRICAN POWER PLATFORM PUBLISHES REPORTS ON POWER SECTOR FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Press Release: African Power Platform publishes Reports on Power Sector Framework for selected African Countries
With the repo ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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