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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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