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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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