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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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