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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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