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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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