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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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