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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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