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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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