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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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