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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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