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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA RESUMES OVER 70 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 70.2 percent of its coal production capacity with output recovering steadily amid the fight against the novel coronavirus epidemi ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA THERMAL COAL MARKET FACES 2-3 MONTH CORONAVIRUS SHORT SQUEEZE: NOBLE - REUTERS
China’s domestic thermal coal market faces a 2-3 month short squeeze as a rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak curtails production more tha ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR Q2- Q4 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, (KOMIPO). has issued an international tender for total 1 million MT of coal for April to December 2020 l ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
GLENCORE WRITES OFF ALMOST $1 BILLION AT COLOMBIAN COAL MINES DUE TO FALLING EUROPEAN IMPORTS: BLOOMBERG
The economic case against European coal is proving too much for even Glencore Plc.
The world’s biggest coal shipper cut the va ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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