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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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