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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quart ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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