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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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