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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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