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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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