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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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