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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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