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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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