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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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