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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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