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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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