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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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