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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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