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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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