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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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