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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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