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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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