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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
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Thursday, 07 May 20
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Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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