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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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