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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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