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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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