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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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