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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
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The index, released by Chi ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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