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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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