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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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