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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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